WASHINGTON:
WASHINGTON :Following a last-minute court ruling that legalized gambling on the US election, millions of dollars have been wagered on the outcome, raising the stakes in an already tense race.
As of Friday, contracts predicting a victory for Harris were trading between 48 and 50 percent in her favor on Interactive Brokers, a firm capitalizing on a recent legal development in the ongoing regulatory debate over election markets.
With just a month remaining until the November 5 vote, the markets opened after a Washington court ruled that Kalshi, a startup seeking to establish political betting in the US, could accept wagers while regulatory appeals against the company continue.
In just a few days, over $6.3 million had been wagered solely on the Harris-Trump matchup, with additional bets placed on control of the House and Senate.
This marks the latest chapter in a prolonged dispute between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and firms looking to offer election betting—a practice that is legal in several other countries, and which some Americans engage in through offshore markets outside of regulatory oversight.
On one such offshore platform, Polymarket, more than $1.7 billion has been bet on the Harris-Trump matchup, with Trump leading Harris 54 to 45 as of Friday evening.
Proponents of gambling—referred to as “event contracts” in financial terms—argue that it provides a legitimate method for hedging against unfavorable outcomes and is often more reliable than polls.
“These contracts are significant,” stated Steve Sanders, executive vice president of marketing and product development at Interactive Brokers. “They allow people to express their views on the current situation and hedge their portfolios.”
In just a few days, over 1 million contracts had been traded on Interactive Brokers.
