ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy has demonstrated sustained recovery during first quarter of FY2025. Stability in both the fiscal and external sectors has been maintained.
Supported by significant financial inflows. Pakistan has received first tranche of US$ 1.03 billion under IMF EFF Programme, reinforcing macroeconomic stability. Moreover, successful hosting of SCO summit 2024 in Pakistan are paving the way for business and market confidence. In the wake of positive developments, the economy will continue to observe sustainable economic recovery in the coming months.
Sales of all vehicles witnessed the growth of 18.1 percent and 17.0 percent, respectively. Major growth drivers included, production of Cars increased by 29.9 percent, Trucks & Buses by 95.5 percent and Jeeps & Pick-ups by 34.1 percent. During Jul-Sep FY2025, total cement dispatches were 10.3 million tonnes, of which domestic dispatches stood at 8.1 million tonnes. Cement exports increased by 22.2 percent to 2.1 million tonnes. In September 2024, cement dispatches recorded at 3.5 million tonnes compared to 3.7 million tons last year. Whereby, local cement dispatches stood at 2.6 million tonnes and export dispatches rose by 71.5 percent, with volumes increasing to 978,871 tonnes.
During FY2025 (Jul-Sep), imports of agricultural machinery increased by 115.9 percent to $29.7 million. Urea off take during Kharif 2024 recorded at 2,746 thousand tonnes while DAP offtake stood at 642 thousand tonnes. Overall fertilizer production during Jul-Sep FY2025 increased by 3.7 percent to 2.45 mn tons compared to last year. During Kharif-2024, water availability remained satisfactory During Jul-Aug FY2025, the production of wheat threshers increased by 22.8 percent compared to last year. All these factors will positively impact the growth of agriculture sector.
During Jul-Aug FY2025, the net federal revenues grew by 20.8 percent to Rs 986.7 billion from Rs 816.6 billion same period last year. Both tax and non-tax revenues increased by 20.8 percent and 20.6 percent, respectively.
The main contributor to non-tax revenues was the petroleum levy which surged by 19.6 percent to Rs 168.3 billion from Rs.140.7 billion last year. Whereas total expenditures grew by 3.1 percent to Rs 1,635.5 billion during Jul-Aug FY2025 against Rs 1,585.7 billion last year. The markup expenditure declined by 6.3 percent owing to the gradual decline in the policy rate. Consequently, the fiscal deficit reduced to 0.7 percent of GDP as against 0.8 percent of GDP last year. Additionally, the primary balance recorded a surplus of 0.05 percent of GDP, During Jul-Sep FY2025, the FBR net tax collection grew by 25.5 percent to Rs 2,562.9 billion as compared to Rs 2,041.5 billion same period last year. In September 2024, FBR collected 32.7 percent more taxes to reach Rs 1,107 billion from Rs 834 billion in September 2023.
GDP Growth; IMF Prediction FY 25: 3.2% Bloomberg) FY 26: 4% (3.6 % by Economic turnaround; highlights effective structural reforms & initiatives; on a solid path towards sustainable, long term growth Investment-to-GDP ratio Projected rise; 13% in 2024 to 16% by 2029 Positive indictor; validation of effective policies measures Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Surged by 55.5% Increased investor confidence Exports Increased by 7.2% (first quarter of FY 2025) FY 23: $27.72 Bn FY 24: $30.64 Bn Commendable rise of 10.54%; growing demand and strategic trade agreements; reduce the trade deficit and support local industries Inflation forecast by IMF 9.5% for the current yr (declined from 38% Sep 23 to 6.9% Sep 24)
Lowered; stabilizing costs Reduction in Policy Rate Sep 23: 22 % Nov 24: 15 % Reflects improved economic health Remittances FY 23: $27.3 Bn FY 24: $30.3 Bn 10.7% increase; remarkable growth; strengthening foreign reserves Foreign exchange reserves $11.175 Bn Cty’s total Res; $16.049 Bn 31 x months’ high; sharp increase in remittances; reflects economic resilience and improved fiscal management; will enhance investor confidence Government debt Rs 1,426 Bn to Rs 601 Bn (compared to previous yr) Reduced due to eff austerity measures Tax revenue Non-tax revenue: by 550% (Rs 3.05 Tn); tax revenue by 25% (Rs 2.77 Tn) Surge in tax revenue; validates ntl effort to revitalize FBR FBR Tax Collection Rs 9.285 Tn for FY23 Exceeding its expected target; substantial growth of 30% compared to previous year; reforms yielding results Profit Rs 2.5 Tn for the first quarter (July-September) Surplus; all-time high PSX Crossed the record level of over 91000 77.9% increase; investors ‘confidence; Bloomberg recognized as one of the world’s top performing markets in 2024. Filing of Tax Returns Surged by 71% Improved fiscal health Roshan Digital Account Aug 23: $ 130 Mn Aug 24: $ 165 Mn Sep 24: $ 168 Mn Heightened confidence on Govt policies
