KARACHI: The Ministry of Finance has forecasted that headline inflation will stay within the range of 3.5% to 4.5% for July 2025, citing easing inflationary pressures driven by stable energy costs, a steady exchange rate, and consistent domestic supplies.Furthermore, the current account recorded a surplus of $2.1 billion, marking the first annual surplus in 14 years and the largest in over two decades. The fiscal deficit remained controlled at 3.1% of GDP for July–May of FY25, reflecting improved fiscal discipline and resource management.
The ministry emphasized that robust foreign exchange inflows, a stable currency, and increased stakeholder confidence have laid a strong foundation for sustainable economic growth in the upcoming months.
Additionally, social protection initiatives and climate resilience will continue to be key components, aligning short-term economic strategies with Pakistan’s long-term development objectives.Looking ahead, real GDP is projected to grow by 4.2% in FY26, supported by ongoing price stabilization efforts. Large-scale manufacturing is expected to sustain its momentum into June 2025, driven by increased private sector credit and expanding production activities. This growth is anticipated to boost imports of raw materials and intermediate goods and support exports of value-added products.
Enhanced domestic demand, a stable exchange rate, steady global commodity prices, and rising foreign demand are likely to strengthen exports, remittances, and imports in July 2025, further stabilizing the external sector
