HONG KONG: China’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, with the number of deaths outpacing a slight increase in births, and experts cautioning that the trend will accelerate in the coming years.
In 2024, China’s population dropped by 1.39 million, falling to 1.408 billion from 1.409 billion in 2023, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. This decline raises concerns about the challenges the world’s second-largest economy faces, particularly as the workforce and consumer base shrinks. Additionally, the rising costs associated with elderly care and retirement benefits are putting further strain on already financially burdened local governments.
While China’s total number of births increased slightly to 9.54 million in 2024 from 9.02 million the previous year, the birth rate per 1,000 people rose modestly to 6.77 from 6.39. Meanwhile, the number of deaths decreased to 10.93 million in 2024, compared to 11.1 million in 2023.
The country’s declining birth rates can be traced back to decades of the one-child policy, which lasted from 1980 to 2015, coupled with rapid urbanization. Like neighboring Japan and South Korea, a large segment of China’s population has migrated from rural areas to cities, where the costs of raising children are higher. Factors such as the expense of childcare and education, job insecurity, and a slowing economy have discouraged many young people from marrying or starting families.
In addition, deep-rooted gender discrimination and societal expectations that women shoulder the responsibility of childcare further exacerbate the issue, according to demographers. These challenges reflect a broader demographic shift that could have long-term implications for China’s economic future.
