A survey was carried out by a team of an institute in Lahore, according to which they revealed a report regarding political attitudes in Lahore and the Elections 2018.
The brief of survey was written by Ali cheema from Lahore University of Management Sciences and Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives, as well as Asad Liaquat from Harvard University.
The report says that as Pakistan nears election year, it is the right time to begin tracking the political attitudes of voters on critical issues that are likely to shape the general election in 2018. The best way to do this is to hear directly from voters about what they think. The Political Economy Group at the Institute of Development and Economic Alternatives (IDEAS) planned a series of political attitude surveys that aimed to ascertain which issues matter to voters, which political campaign messages are resonating with them and their support for different political parties, candidates and leaders.
Issues that matter for 2018 elections: Voters are concerned most about economic issues such as purchasing power and unemployment. Corruption is an important issue for a sizeable minority but anti-corruption campaigns that do not tackle economic issues are unlikely to resonate. Several public services including education, health, water, electricity and security matter for voters, but improvement in no one service is likely to swing the election. There is cautious optimism among voters regarding their own financial condition. They are also giving measured praise to PML-N for its performance in tackling their issues.
Honesty and Development: While voters are polarized on the question of Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif’s honesty, a big majority thinks they are capable of taking Pakistan into the league of developed nations. An overwhelming majority rejects that Imran Khan is dishonest, but at this stage of Election 2018, and in these three constituencies, he is seen less favorably as the leader to take Pakistan into the league of developed nations.
Party Support and Voting Intent: PTI is trailing behind PML-N in terms of party support in all three of our surveyed constituencies. In terms of voting intention, there is a large proportion of voters who are still undecided and the election will rest on where they sway. The proportion who state they will vote for PML-N are close to, but not quite, a majority. The survey findings are an important indication of how political parties need to fine tune their election campaigns as they gear up for the 2018 election.
The survey asked voters to report three issues that will matter most in the 2018 general elections.
The results are given here:
The issue that stands out by a large margin is purchasing power. Close
to two – thirds of our respondents suggest that this issue will matter most in
the next election. At the heart of the issue are improved earnings from jobs and price stability of goods that affect household living standards. This suggests that whether the rates of growth of earnings and employment achieved by the PML – N governments can meet voter aspirations is crucial for the next election. Economic shocks that slow down earnings or lead to price inflation or rising prices for goods that are important components of household baskets (like electricity) have the potential to put the incumbent party at serious risk.
Nearly one – third of respondents also cite employment as an issue that will matter
for the next election. The high weight placed by our respondents on purchasing power and employment shouldn’t be surprising, since past polls have reported these as critical issues for voters in the 2008 and 2013 general elections. Economic outcomes, particularly growth, employment and earnings are at the heart of the political assessment being made by voters. Surprisingly, these economic issues are not being acknowledged in the current political discourse and there is little discussion on them.
Slightly more than one – third of respondents cite corruption as an important issue.
Governance concerns continue to resonate with voters and are likely to shape their perceptions in the upcoming election.
A build – up of adverse voter perce ptions about corruption under the current PML-N governments have the potential to affect a minority vote, but a sizeable minority vote. Successful campaigns on this issue have the potential to put the opposition parties in the running. However, they are unlikely to swing electoral outcomes in these constituencies in their favour unless they are seen as credible alternatives on economic issues. This is the big message for PTI.
Between one – fourth and close to one – fifth of respondents cite effective service delivery (education, health, water, electricity, gas and security) as an important issue. The message here is that service delivery matters but improvement in no one service is likely to swing the election.
For voters, no one service stands out over and above others. PML-N can only have a big electoral effect through service delivery improvements if it improves the delivery of the bundle of services that matter for voters Put another
way, big investments in the delivery of one or two services are unlikely to matter if there is a perceived deterioration in earnings or prices. Within service delivery, electricity doesn’t stand out as the most important issue.
This is what the current survey shows but this could reflect seasonality as the survey was conducted in winter months with low load shedding. This issue needs to be tracked closely.
Voter perceptions about their financial conditions: Given the importance of real earnings and employment it is important to ask whether our
Thesurvey also asked questions about voting intent in the 2018 general election.
