ISLAMABAD: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published its latest World Economic Outlook, highlighting significant gaps between Pakistan’s official economic goals and forecasts from global financial institutions.
The IMF predicts Pakistan’s economic growth for the current fiscal year at 3.2%, as detailed in its updated report. This projection falls short of the government’s set target, emphasizing a widening disparity in economic projections.
Additionally, the IMF has revised down Pakistan’s GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points compared to its October 2025 projection, signaling a more cautious perspective on the economic trajectory.
Government forecasts outpace IMF estimates.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance has set an economic growth goal of 4.2% for the fiscal year. Officials remain optimistic, citing policy interventions and strong sectoral performance as key drivers to achieving this target.
The ministry reported a GDP growth rate of 3.7% in the first quarter of the fiscal year, offering a glimpse of early momentum and maintaining hope for hitting its benchmark.
Projections for the next fiscal year.
Looking ahead, the IMF anticipates Pakistan’s GDP growth to climb modestly to 4.1% in the next fiscal year. While this suggests some improvement, it still lags behind the government’s more ambitious vision of accelerated progress. The IMF’s outlook reflects a measured stabilization rather than any rapid economic growth.
The World Bank has also weighed in with forecasts that are even more conservative. It projects Pakistan’s economy to grow by 3% this fiscal year and 3.4% in the next. These figures point to heightened caution within the global lending community about Pakistan’s prospects for recovery.
Economic hurdles ahead
The divergent projections from the IMF, World Bank, and Pakistan’s government underscore persistent uncertainty surrounding the country’s economic growth trajectory. Experts attribute these variances to differing views on reforms, external economic pressures, and domestic challenges.
While policymakers in Pakistan focus on achieving arduous targets, international institutions remain wary, frequently highlighting deep-rooted structural issues that could restrain economic progress.
