ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecasts another round of heavy rainfall across central and northern regions from July 15 to 17. Since the arrival of the monsoon in late June, official figures indicate that over 110 lives have been lost, including many children, due to various weather-related incidents.
According to data released by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), covering June 26 to July 14, electrocution remains the leading cause of death, followed by flash floods. In late June, at least 13 tourists lost their lives while seeking shelter from flash floods on an elevated riverbank.
The latest NDMA report states that a total of 111 individuals, of whom 53 are children, have died, with the highest toll in Punjab, the most populous province. The Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned of more rain from July 15 to 17, fueled by a low-pressure system currently situated over northwest Madhya Pradesh, India, which is expected to influence Pakistan within the next 24 to 72 hours.
According to the PMD, this weather pattern will bring strong monsoon currents across the central and upper parts of the country from July 15 to 17. A westerly wave is also present over the northern regions, contributing to the forecast of intense rainfall.
Regional Weather Forecasts:
Azad Kashmir: Expect scattered heavy rain, thunderstorms, and wind, especially in Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Poonch, and surrounding areas, from July 14 night until July 17.
Gilgit-Baltistan: Isolated heavy falls accompanied by thunderstorms are predicted across Diamir, Astore, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, and other districts during the same period.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Significant rain with thunderstorms and scattered heavy falls, including in Chitral, Swat, Malakand, and Peshawar, are expected from July 14 night to 17.
Punjab and Islamabad: Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and gusty winds are forecasted in the capital region, Lahore, Multan, and surrounding districts between July 14 evening and 17.
Balochistan: Scattered heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely in Quetta, Zhob, Ziarat, and adjacent areas from July 14 to 16.
Sindh: Light to moderate rain, including in Karachi, Tharparkar, and Sukkur, is expected from July 14 to 16, with some areas experiencing occasional downpours.
Warnings and Precautions:
The PMD has urged authorities to remain vigilant, as heavy rains could trigger flash floods in streams, nullahs, and hill torrents. Urban flooding is also a concern in low-lying zones, along with road closures due to landslides and mudslides in hilly terrains.
Citizens, travelers, and tourists are advised to stay alert, avoid risky areas, and monitor weather updates continuously to prevent accidents and mishaps.
Monsoon Season Overview:
The monsoon season typically delivers 70-80% of South Asia’s annual rainfall, starting in early June in India and late June in Pakistan, continuing through September. While crucial for agriculture, food security, and livelihoods—especially for millions of farmers—it also brings hazards such as flooding, landslides, and structural collapses.
Recent years have seen changing weather patterns and rising temperatures in South Asia, but scientists remain uncertain about the precise impacts of climate change on monsoon behavior. Pakistan, particularly vulnerable to climate-related disasters, faced catastrophic floods in 2022 that submerged a third of the country and resulted in approximately 1,700 deaths. In May, severe storms and hailstorms claimed at least 32 lives, highlighting the increasing severity of extreme weather events
