KARACHI: The benchmark index at the Pakistan Stock Exchange experienced significant volatility during the session, reaching an intraday high of 161,435.83 a gain of 225.16 points (0.14%) before plunging to a low of 157,072.64, reflecting a drop of 4,138.03 points (2.57%).
According to Huzaifa Riaz, Director at Mayari Securities (Pvt) Limited, the market remained under pressure due to rising global oil prices and logistical disruptions affecting shipping routes following the recent conflict, which weakened investor confidence.
He added that market participants also remained cautious ahead of the upcoming monetary policy announcement, preferring to adopt a wait-and-see strategy.
A review issued by Topline Securities noted that after Thursday’s strong rally, investors turned cautious and chose to trim their positions before the weekend amid growing concerns that tensions between the United States and Iran could escalate into a longer conflict.As a result, the KSE‑100 Index dropped 2.3% to settle at 157,496 points.
The report said the largest drag on the index came from stocks including United Bank Limited, Engro Holdings, Fauji Fertilizer Company, Lucky Cement, Hub Power Company, Meezan Bank, Systems Limited, Oil and Gas Development Company, and Bank Alfalah, which collectively shaved around 2,124 points from the benchmark.
In terms of trading activity, Pakistan Petroleum Limited led the market with transactions worth Rs1.83 billion, followed by Oil and Gas Development Company (Rs1.66 billion), Attock Refinery Limited (Rs1.62 billion), United Bank Limited (Rs1.16 billion), and National Bank of Pakistan (Rs980 million). Overall market turnover reached 360 million shares with a total value of Rs23 billion.
Investor caution was also influenced by expectations regarding the upcoming policy review by the State Bank of Pakistan. survey showed that analysts widely expect the central bank to maintain the policy rate at 10.5% during Monday’s meeting, citing uncertainty stemming from rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions.
All 10 analysts surveyed predicted no change in the benchmark rate. Since mid-2024, policymakers have already lowered borrowing costs by a cumulative 11.5 percentage points from a historic peak of 22%.
Analysts also cautioned that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated. Muhammad Aliv, an analyst at AKD Securities, said future interest-rate decisions will largely depend on energy price trends, predicting inflation could average about 7% during the second half of fiscal year 2026.
Meanwhile, Waqas Ghani, Head of Research at JS Capital, noted that higher oil prices tend to expand Pakistan’s trade deficit and put pressure on the rupee. He explained that a $10 increase per barrel in crude oil generally adds around 0.5 percentage points to inflation. According to him, inflation rose to 7% in February compared to 5.8% in January.
In the previous trading session on Thursday, the KSE‑100 Index had surged by 5,433.46 points, or 3.49%, closing at 161,210.68 after fluctuating between 161,476.85 and 156,250.29.
