ISLAMABAD: The renowned economic research organization, the Economic Policy and Business Development (EPBD), has introduced a comprehensive five-year development blueprint aimed at creating approximately 20 million new employment opportunities by 2031. The plan emphasizes boosting Pakistan’s economic progress through targeted structural reforms, expanding exports, and fostering an investment-friendly environment.
Spanning from 2026 to 2031, the proposed roadmap envisions an annual GDP growth rate reaching 8.5 percent and details initiatives to enhance exports, bolster foreign exchange reserves, and stabilize macroeconomic indicators. Central to the strategy are reforms designed to lower tax burdens, streamline the business environment, and reduce electricity and gas costs—measures expected to stimulate economic activity and attract investment.
The plan projects a substantial increase in exports, rising from $30 billion currently to $78 billion by 2031. Meanwhile, imports are forecasted to grow from $63 billion to $88 billion, with the existing trade deficit of $35 billion targeted for elimination through export expansion and economic reforms. External financing inflows are anticipated to reach $29 billion, with remittances climbing from $40 billion to $60 billion during the same period. Foreign exchange reserves are expected to grow significantly, reaching approximately $63.5 billion.
Under this strategy, EPBD envisions a reduction in interest rates from the current 11.5 percent to around 7 percent by 2031, while maintaining inflation at approximately 5 percent. Fiscal targets include increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10.5 percent to 18 percent and raising the gross national savings rate from 12.5 percent to 22.5 percent.
Sector-specific growth targets are also outlined: agricultural output is expected to grow from 3.6 percent to 6.8 percent, industrial growth from 4.3 percent to 9 percent, and the services sector from 4.8 percent to 9.6 percent by 2031. The plan further aims to reduce public debt to 60 percent of GDP and boost per capita income to $2,900 annually within five years.
EPBD emphasized that these reforms are designed to place Pakistan onto a sustainable growth path by increasing productivity, attracting foreign investment, expanding exports, and generating employment across key sectors. The shadow development plan arrives amid ongoing debates among policymakers and stakeholders about strategies to achieve long-term economic stability, enhance export competitiveness, and address fiscal and external sector challenges.
